CO₂ emissions: which car makers meet the 95 g/km target in 2020?

In January 2020, the figure 95 became the automotive industry’s most “feared” number. That was when the requirement to cut average CO₂ emissions to 95 g/km by the end of the year came into force.

Two factors have helped manufacturers during this transitional year, both of which will disappear in 2021: for now, the rules apply to 95% of the cars sold - those with the lowest emissions - and the 95 g/km figure is still calculated under the “benevolent” NEDC cycle rather than the more demanding WLTP cycle.

With the year drawing to a close, this is a good time to see which manufacturers are managing to meet the reduction in average CO₂ emissions.

For that purpose, there is no better source than the data published in the European Federation for Transport and Environment study.

Meeting the target is not easy

According to the study, roughly half of the fall from 122 g/km to 95 g/km of CO₂ in 2020 is likely to be achieved through flexibility mechanisms, at least based on the strategies adopted by manufacturers.

What do these mechanisms involve? They include super-credits and eco-innovations. The former encourage manufacturers to launch models emitting less than 50 g/km: every such vehicle sold counts as two cars in 2020, 1.67 in 2021 and 1.33 in 2022 when calculating average emissions.

Eco-innovations, meanwhile, were introduced to promote the development of technologies that reduce fuel consumption in ways not accounted for in type-approval tests.

Manufacturers can also rely on other mechanisms, including a limit applied differently to each producer according to the weight of its cars - allowing heavier models to emit more - manufacturer pooling, as FCA and Tesla have done, exemptions for small manufacturers and derogations.

As for electric and plug-in hybrid models, although their European market share is expected to reach 10% in 2020 - it was 8% in the first half of the year - they account for only around 30% of this reduction. That contribution is estimated to rise to 50% in 2021.

Which manufacturers are meeting, nearing or missing the CO₂ target?

In the first half of the year, PSA, Volvo, FCA-Tesla - FCA can only achieve this through its “alliance” with Tesla - and BMW, in that order, were the manufacturers that managed to comply with the reduction in average CO₂ emissions.

Renault, Nissan, Toyota-Mazda and Ford were 2 g/km away from meeting the target. The Renault Zoe alone will allow Renault to reduce its figure by 15 g/km, while Toyota-Mazda will reach its 2020 reduction target almost entirely through the hybridisation of its range.

The Volkswagen Group, meanwhile, was 6 g/km short of its objective. It is relying on sales of the new ID.3 and the models that will share its MEB platform to lower average emissions by 6 g/km in 2020 and 11 g/km in 2021.

The Volkswagen Group recently entered into a pooling arrangement with MG, a brand owned by its Chinese partner SAIC, whose current range consists mainly of electric vehicles. MG is not currently available in Portugal, although it will also arrive there, according to information on its website.

Hyundai-Kia, which is also strongly committed to electrification, was 6 g/km from the target in the first half of the year. Finally, Daimler, 9 g/km away from compliance, and Jaguar Land Rover, 13 g/km away, were among the manufacturers furthest from achieving the reduction in average emissions during that period.

Sales of electric and plug-in hybrid models have grown markedly, helped by post-Covid purchase incentives introduced from the summer in several countries, including France and Germany.

Rising sales of these vehicles helped reduce the average CO₂ emissions of new cars sold in Europe from 122 g/km in 2019 to 111 g/km, the largest drop since these regulations were introduced in 2008.

Sources: Zero; European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E).